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Modelling approaches

These cover a spectrum that includes the following.

  • Temporal models are mostly based on compartmental SEIR(Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Removed) models for epidemics but with additional complexities of:
    • dual sources of inoculum;
    • quenching as hosts become resistant to infection;
    • and host dynamics that depend upon infection load.
  • Stochastic modelsinclude allowance for:
    • demographic stochasticity (chance effects in transmission from infected to susceptible individuals under otherwise identical conditions);
    • environmental stochasticity (when transmission parameters are influenced by local or global changes in environmental variables).
  • Spatially-implicit modelsseek to capture some of the spatial aspects of epidemics within a temporal model by using:
    • non-linear mixing terms between susceptibles and infected;
    • moment closure and pair-approximation methods.
  • Spatially-explicit modelsinclude:
    • individual-based models, for example, for susceptibles on a lattice often with local mixing;
    • reaction-advection-diffusion and dispersal-kernel models;
    • metapopulation models that comprise coupled sub-populations such as fields or different regions.